A global perspective on the probability of propagation of drought: From meteorological to soil moisture

• We propose a copula-based model for linking meteorological drought and soil moisture drought. Seasonal cumulative water deficit initial condition have different effects on propagation globally. South America is more vulnerable to agricultural under the of With probabilistic model, this study presents global view Meta-Gaussian three-dimensional vine copulas were employed construct bivariate trivariate conditional joint distributions, respectively, using time series standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) (SMI) derived from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) simulations. Three cases, including probability magnitude conditioned 1-month (SPEI1), seasonal (SPEI3), SPEI1 antecedent conditions (SMI lag-1 ), analyzed. Then, duration in response drought, potentially affected cropland area analyzed assess potential impacts. Results showed that likelihood Amazon rainforest, southern eastern China, Southeast Asia, southeastern United States, west Africa was generally higher than other regions. Under impact except Qinghai-Tibet Plateau northern Russia, North Africa, occurrence overall increased with significant increments Europe America. The also influenced propagation, effect particularly Northern U.S. Midwest, Canada, Australia. Spatially, western U.S., Europe, most parts Australia present longer Comprehensive considerations probability, duration, croplands revealed among five continents,